Monday Newsletter

Explore the latest trends, gain valuable insights, and stay informed in the dynamic cryptocurrency ecosystem.

01 July 2024

The decentralized predictions platform Polymarket has shattered records, reaching an unprecedented $100 million in monthly trading volume this June. This surge coincides with intensifying interest in the upcoming United States presidential election, where betting markets have already accumulated over $200 million in wagers.

Key highlights:

  • Presidential race dominates: The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market has attracted $203.3 million in bets across 17 prediction markets.


  • Trump leads, Biden falters: Former President Donald Trump is the current frontrunner with 62% odds and $24.7 million in bets. Incumbent President Joe Biden’s odds have dropped to 21% following the first debate, with $23.9 million wagered on his chances.


  • Dark horse candidates emerge: Odds for Democrats Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama have risen amid speculation about Biden’s campaign future.


  • Biden dropout speculation: Markets for “Biden drops out of presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4” have seen increased activity, with over $10 million in bets placed.


  • Platform growth: Polymarket’s June trading volume of $109.9 million marks a 620% increase from late 2023. Active traders surged 115% to 29,266.


  • Diverse markets: Beyond politics, cryptocurrency prices and the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 have also generated significant trading volumes.


  • Industry perspective: Yuga Cohler, Coinbase engineering lead, praised decentralized prediction markets as “freedom preserving technology that move societies forward.”


  • Platform details: Polymarket, launched in 2020 and recently securing $70 million in funding, operates on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon. Its total value locked has increased 69% to $40.2 million in the past month.

As the 2024 US presidential race heats up, Polymarket’s record-breaking performance underscores the growing intersection of blockchain technology, predictive markets, and political engagement.