Monday Newsletter

Explore the latest trends, gain valuable insights, and stay informed in the dynamic cryptocurrency ecosystem.

15 April 2024

According to analysts, the aftermath of the Bitcoin halving could see miners offloading as much as $5 billion worth of BTC over the next four to six months.

This anticipated surge in supply might cause significant fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price, potentially leading to a period of sideways movement reminiscent of previous halving cycles.

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, projects this scenario based on historical patterns and market dynamics. 

He suggests that the selling pressure from miners could persist for several months, creating a challenging environment for crypto markets, particularly during what he terms a ‘summer lull.’

Thielen points out that following previous halvings, Bitcoin prices remained relatively stagnant for months before experiencing a notable uptick. This trend could repeat itself in the wake of the upcoming halving, expected around April 20.

Furthermore, Thielen highlights the tendency of miners to accumulate BTC leading up to the halving, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance that often precedes price rallies. This accumulation phase has already driven Bitcoin prices to new highs in 2024, reaching a peak of $73,734 in March before undergoing a correction.

However, Thielen warns that altcoins may not fare as well during this period, with many experiencing significant losses and struggling to regain their 2021 peaks. Despite speculation about a potential altcoin rally following the halving, historical evidence suggests that such rallies typically occur several months later.

In preparation for the post-halving period, Thielen suggests that major miners like Marathon may gradually sell off their inventory to avoid revenue cliffs. Marathon, for instance, currently produces 28–30 BTC per day, which could add substantial daily supply to the market post-halving.

If other miners adopt a similar strategy, Thielen estimates a maximum daily selling volume of $104 million worth of BTC, potentially reversing the supply-demand dynamics that drove prices up pre-halving.

Marathon CEO Peter Thiel has also indicated the company’s break-even rate post-halving, suggesting that significant price movements are unlikely in the immediate aftermath of the event.

In summary, while the Bitcoin halving holds promise for long-term price appreciation, short-term market dynamics may involve a period of adjustment as miners adjust their strategies and supply dynamics shift.”